Uranium continues to be the one commodity to have missed out on the recent boom, although more nuclear power plants are under construction or in the planning stage than ever before. China alone is planning or constructing over two hundred plants.

No clear source of power generation clear of polluting carbon emissions and not dependent upon fossil fuels and that is capable of meeting ever increasing world wide demand has yet emerged to challenge the nuclear option. Nor are their any substantiated forecasts that any alternatives are in the pipeline.

The International Energy Agency estimates that just to only half greenhouse gas emissions, 1400 operating nuclear power plants worldwide will be required by 2050.

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We in the West still suffer from the belief that the world economies revolve around us so when we suffer then so will the rest of the globe.

Not so long ago this was undeniably true but things have changed. The US is no longer the overwhelmingly dominant driver of world trade with Europe being dragged along on its' coat tails.

That position has been steadily undermined since the turn of the millennium, arguably earlier, as a consequence of fiscal and political incompetence at the same time as the BRIC nations and oil producing nations have grown in economic strength.

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1. Look at major companies that trade around the world and are not dependent upon Western sources of revenue.
2. Avoid businesses that have anything but the barest minimum of debt.
3. Remember that in hard times even the most bombproof assets can take a hammering. Avoid property, most retailing, manufacturers and distributors of non-essentials.
4. Buy essentials to living such as utilities.

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As I write spot gold continues to fluctuate between $787- $802 an ounce since last weeks close. Remembering that the yellow metal has dropped from $970 an ounce since July 22^nd, less than 20 trading days, who can doubt that this is a severe set back for even the most ardent gold bulls, and that includes ourselves.

At the same time commodities of every hue have followed suit, seemingly ignoring likely global demand/supply fundamentals but led by the conception that looming recession in the US and other Western countries will encompass the remaining global economies.

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We made a stupid mistake last week by forgetting that the stock market rarely responds to rational thinking. As a result gold fell very sharply.

On the basis that the US economy is looking to get sicker as each month goes by, that the dollar is arguably no stronger a currency than the Euro and certainly weaker than most other leading currency, sterling excepted.

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Last week platinum sank to a six month low. Today in European trading spot gold followed suit falling from $914 an ounce to $900 an ounce at 0830 ET.

The yellow metal staged a recovery to $904 an hour later but in the short term it is anybodies guess where it will go from here.

If gold hits the skids, the next stop will be the $850 level but, fingers crossed, resistance at $900 will continue to hold up.

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There is no formal regulated market for yellow cake but indicated spot prices are off their June lows and uranium stays steady at around $64.50 a lb.  

Areva, the French nuclear company, has at last settled its dispute with the Central African Republic and has been given the go ahead to start delivering the yellow cake from its mine at Bakouma by 2010. Mining rights were originally granted to UraMin, an Anglo Canadian Mining company taken over by Areva in 2007.

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After briefly crashing through the $900 level gold has quickly recovered to $915 at 11.00 am E.T. today, Thursday.

It looks as though our previous best guess that $905 would prove the low point was a good call.

We anticipate that the price will fluctuate either side of $915 until after mid September by which time the fundamentals pointing to a break to above $1000 assert themselves.

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Gold and silver are looking set to continue moving up over the next few days mainly due to oil firmness with hurricane Dolly (maybe) disrupting supply in the Gulf of Mexico and a deadlock in the Iranian talks.

Add this to the continued weakness of the dollar and only hot air from the Fed that does nothing to give us hope that the economic woes of the US are being addressed must surely raise the expectations of us gold bulls that the yellow metal will shortly break through the $1000 an ounce barrier.

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Even though oil reversed course yesterday, the ongoing weakness of the dollar and the worsening signs for the US economy, particularly the banking and financial sector, is adding to appeal of both metals.

Readers will know that we have reservations about the dependence upon technical analysis that many market players rely on but on this occasion our resident analyst has brought to our attention numerous indicators that point to gold and silver ascending the heights starting now.

In other words gold and silver are on their way up sooner than we expected. 

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